Real Estate Anecdotes

Yesterday I had the good pleasure of interacting with several different Realtors in the Phoenix area. The experiences once again confirmed my steadfast belief that we are perhaps into the 2nd or 3rd inning of what will prove to be a devastating depression.

The first interaction involved me inspecting a REO property that I was considering purchasing, improving, and reselling. Phoenix just experienced nearly a week of steady rain and this property clearly had a roof leak. The ceiling was wet and drooping and the carpet was still wet. I instructed my realtor to lower the offer and let the other agent know of the problem. The other agent insisted that I was lying, and claimed to have a contractor go look at it and saw no signs of a leak. Why does this confirm that we are just beginning the depression? Simply because idiots like the agent and her contractor will ultimately be washed out when the bottom is found. The house a real problem along with a real buyer. The contractor couldn't identify the easiest of problems, and the agent chose to stop trying to make a sale and instead argue about something she had no capacity to understand. So far there has been very, very little cleansing accomplished in this depression. Our national policy has been to extend and pretend, providing more liquidity to markets that have suffered from excess liquidity for no less than 10 years. Idiots masquerade as proffesionals...this is not a market that has been chastened, corrected, or found a bottom. When it does these types will have been wiped out.

The second experience was with a worthless agent who called to schedule to show my personal residence. We spoke at 2:00pm and scheduled for him to bring his clients by between 4:00-5:00pm. When he hadn't shown by 5:30 I called and left him a message. Of course you can guess that he never bothered to call back. The Arizona real estate market has been the home of those who were completely unemployable for the past 10 years. No bottom will be found until these worthless, unprofessional, parasites are washed out of the industry.

The last experience was a meeting with two agents who recognize the need to reinvent themselves to stay relevant as the industry washes out the losers. Smart enough to know that they've got to get creative and smart enough to know that if that doesn't work they need to get out of the industry. All the hacks are out there telling everyone, "there's never been a better time to buy" and all the other bs. The smart ones are getting creative and acknowledging that if their new approach doesn't work, get out of dodge.

That's not the end of a depression or even a mild recession. It is the second stage of consciousness among those that intellectual capable of understanding just how bad the situation truly is.